Payroll employment fell by over 15,000 jobs in Q3, an improvement (of sorts) following the nearly 38,000 job losses in the previous quarter: While employment in Industry and Construction continued to decline, Services posted a small increase in jobs due to more that 10,000 positions created in the information and communication sector:
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We’ve been highlighting recently the current seemingly excessive level of stock valuations (here, here & here), so we thought it only fitting to dig a little deeper into the puzzle. Below we show pictures of the five sectors of the world stock market whose median constituent Price/Sales ratio is furthest above the average since 1999.
Read MoreThe Boom-Bust Baromter (CRB Raw Industiral Index/Initial unemployment Claims) has rallied since making a low on October 4th back to almost new highs. If the market keeps pushing higher will the Boom-Bust Barometer be able to keep pace?
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One way we calculate momentum is to measure the percent of days that stocks are up and down. A random walk would have a 50% central tendency, so when the percent of up days diverges significantly from this mean, we can measure the deviation from randomness.
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According to the latest Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts (formerly Flow of Funds), rising equity and housing prices helped push the net worth of US households to another new high ($77 trillion). Total liabilities remain below 2007 highs.
Read MoreIndustrial production (yoy) in Sweden fell for the seventh straight month in October: While stock price performance of MSCI Sweden Industrials has not been as bad as in some other sectors, the abundance of (deteriorating) trading ranges in our point-and-figure methodology is probable cause for concern:
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In understanding that valuations are cyclical and valuation range regimes change over time, we’ve constructed some charts to compare current valuations with the previous 7 year average (roughly a complete market cycle) to help us gauge the general price level prevailing in the market.
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One thing the financial news stations are not short of today are commentators arguing that stocks are cheap, or at least fairly valued.
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Over the last month, lumber prices have fallen by 10%. Over the last five years, lumber has been an interesting early warning sign for deflation concerns.
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The purchasing power parity (PPP) theory basically states that the exchange rate between two countries should adjust so that a basket of goods in Country X costs the same as it does in Country Y when priced in the same currency.
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