Archive by Author

Hot Air Balloon Economy

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The interplay between debt and income can be a difficult thing to understand. Here is a useful analogy. Imagine a hot air balloon lying on the ground preparing for take-off. The fuel tank, used to heat the air, is the balance sheet in this analogy while the loft of the balloon is the income statement. […]

A Massive Liquidity Illusion

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Since the election we’ve heard the rally in stocks characterized as a “Trump Trade” or a “reflation” trade. We think there is a really important element missing from this analysis that could change very quickly over the next several weeks. On March 16, 2017 (the day after the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest […]

Quarterly Strategy Update: A Rotation to Cyclical Leadership?

This quarter we discuss our work navigating a global equity rotation from defensive-driven leadership to cyclical-driven leadership. We analyze economic growth trends and our belief that we are in the closest thing to a synchronized global upturn that we’ve seen in years. We discuss three liquidity shocks are impacting asset prices: China devaluing the yuan, divergent monetary […]

White paper: Smart Beta 2.0, A Disruptive Innovation

There is a new battlefront in the money management business. New smart beta ETFs are entering the market to compete against actively managed mutual funds. These funds will be formidable competition, offering the possibility of superior performance — traditionally the province only of actively managed funds — lower expense ratios and other advantages. As with every […]