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The Impossible Math of the Federal Reserve

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Yesterday the Federal Reserve officially signaled the beginning of its balance sheet run-off. At this point, that’s old news. But, today the Fed released the Z.1 Flow of Funds, which adds to the intrigue of the balance sheet run-off. Why? Instead of getting wrapped up in fancy terms like quantitative easing and large-scale asset purchases, […]

Investing in Gold for RICs

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For retail investors, there are a few vehicles for exposure to gold. The SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) and the iShares Gold ETF (IAU) are the biggest, lowest cost funds for retail investors. Below are charts of the GLD and the IAU, with price and USD volume overlay to illustrate the liquidity. The GLD ETF trades […]

Quarterly Strategy Update: Structural Rotation

energy chart

This quarter, we look at two important structural changes that appear to be underway: a normalization in US and European monetary policy and a normalization in crude oil inventories. We expect these two trends to have important ramifications for equity sector leadership trends. In addition, we expect the growth-driven equity leadership that has prevailed for the last […]

Our Contrarian Call: A Bullish Thesis on the Energy Sector

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Back in December 2016, we discussed our expectation for lower longer-term US interest rates, which we used to justify an aversion to financial stocks. This expectation played out. We also discussed our rotation into the resources sector. We suggested that sometimes rotations can be bumpy, and indeed the last six months has been a bumpy […]