Archive by Author

Coming Challenges to US Treasury Investing

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In the table below we show the aggregate US Treasury maturity schedule. Due to stops and starts of the US Treasury issuing longer dated bonds over the last few decades, there is a huge gap in maturities available for investors. The reader will notice that there are no US Treasury bonds due to mature between 2028-2042. […]

It’s a Gusher So Far

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So far in this earnings season, with over half of companies having reported, the energy sector has experienced the biggest earnings surprise. Earnings have come in almost 23% ahead of analyst estimates, nearly double the surprise of the consumer discretionary sector. Digging into industry groups, with 6 out of 7 companies in the S&P 500 […]

Hot Air Balloon Economy

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The interplay between debt and income can be a difficult thing to understand. Here is a useful analogy. Imagine a hot air balloon lying on the ground preparing for take-off. The fuel tank, used to heat the air, is the balance sheet in this analogy while the loft of the balloon is the income statement. […]

A Massive Liquidity Illusion

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Since the election we’ve heard the rally in stocks characterized as a “Trump Trade” or a “reflation” trade. We think there is a really important element missing from this analysis that could change very quickly over the next several weeks. On March 16, 2017 (the day after the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest […]

Quarterly Strategy Update: A Rotation to Cyclical Leadership?

This quarter we discuss our work navigating a global equity rotation from defensive-driven leadership to cyclical-driven leadership. We analyze economic growth trends and our belief that we are in the closest thing to a synchronized global upturn that we’ve seen in years. We discuss three liquidity shocks are impacting asset prices: China devaluing the yuan, divergent monetary […]