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Time to Be Alert!

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This is the time to be alert for any signs of a failure in the S&P 500. Why? There are two really good historical precedents to the current market configuration. The set-up is as follows: stocks suffer a rather quick correction, bounce back, take out the previous lows and experience a waterfall decline. The period […]

Crypto-Crash Part 2

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On January 17, I wrote a blog titled “Crypto-Crash” (link: http://blog.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/?p=13867) where I speculated that the next stop for Bitcoin would be $8,000. On that day Bitcoin touched $9,100 and then bounced back to $12,000. It has since been range bound between $10,000 and $12,000… until today. Minutes ago, Bitcoin broke below the $10,000 support. […]

Crypto-Crash

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Bitcoin prices have corrected severely in the last 48 hours. The news flow suggests investors have concerns about increased regulation in China and South Korea. No doubt these headlines have spooked investors, but I think there is something else at work. Over the last year, Bitcoin has increased 1000%, going from $1,000 to $10,000. And […]

Threats for Small Caps

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With some exceptions, smaller-cap stocks in the US tend to pay higher taxes than their larger-cap peers. As such, speculation that corporate tax rates may be cut has stoked the performance of US small caps recently. In addition to the concern that tax reform and/or tax cuts may get stalled, there are three other factors […]

Shifting Currents in the US Treasury Market

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Employing basic bond math, we can decompose the US Treasury bond into two pieces: real rates and break-even inflation expectations. Because real rates (TIPS) and nominal rates (US Treasuries) are directly observable, break-even inflation is relatively easy to determine. Taking this logic one step further, we can actually decompose a US Treasury bond into three […]