Archive by Author

A Massive Liquidity Illusion

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Since the election we’ve heard the rally in stocks characterized as a “Trump Trade” or a “reflation” trade. We think there is a really important element missing from this analysis that could change very quickly over the next several weeks. On March 16, 2017 (the day after the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest […]

Quarterly Strategy Update: A Rotation to Cyclical Leadership?

This quarter we discuss our work navigating a global equity rotation from defensive-driven leadership to cyclical-driven leadership. We analyze economic growth trends and our belief that we are in the closest thing to a synchronized global upturn that we’ve seen in years. We discuss three liquidity shocks are impacting asset prices: China devaluing the yuan, divergent monetary […]

White paper: Smart Beta 2.0, A Disruptive Innovation

There is a new battlefront in the money management business. New smart beta ETFs are entering the market to compete against actively managed mutual funds. These funds will be formidable competition, offering the possibility of superior performance — traditionally the province only of actively managed funds — lower expense ratios and other advantages. As with every […]

Growth Or Value Leadership Depends on Fed Policy

SV 6.19.15

The last few years have been good for growth stocks, but I think there is another observation underneath the surface as well.  Growth and value leadership has pivoted on Fed policy the last five years.  In the chart below, I plot the relative performance of the S&P 500 Growth Index compared to the S&P 500 […]

Stock Picks in the European Technology Sector

SV 6.10.15

For the last five years the European technology sector has been locked in a trading range relative to the MSCI All Country World Index (USD). Recently, however, European technology stocks have been performing quite well.  On an equal weighted basis, they have been the second best performing group in Europe year-to-date. While there are only 17 […]

June is Out… But 2015 Lift-off Still On

SV 6.8.15

Looking at Fed Funds futures contracts, it would appear that the fixed income market has ruled out a June rate hike but is coming back to the idea of a 2015 lift-off.  Currently June fed funds future are spot on the current effective fed funds rate of 13bps.  In the chart below, we plot the […]