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Which is it: .9% or 2.8%, and Does it Even Matter?

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As the first quarter nears its end there is some debate as to where Q1 GDP growth will come in. As recently as yesterday the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate had GDP growth of .9% and this morning the NY Fed’s Nowcast is expecting 2.8%. Highlighting the disparity, the upper bound of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow […]

Is the Snap Back in Rates Really that Surprising?

The post-Fed action in the bond market yesterday was impressive, yet left some begging for answers. If the Fed raised short rates yesterday and reiterated its plans for the subsequent five rate increases through 2018, shouldn’t the long-end be selling off? If it were only that easy. The bond market has several headwinds that are […]

Putting the Snap IPO into Historical Context

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The Snap IPO has garnered a fair amount of coverage over the last two days so we thought we’d put some data behind the phenomenon. The most striking thing about the Snap IPO is clearly the valuation. Snap doesn’t have any earnings, but it does have a modicum of sales. After two days of trading […]

Counter-Cyclical Underperformance is Overdone Says Copper, CNY and Rates

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Counter-cyclical stocks have underperformed cyclical stocks by about 9% since Brexit lows. That recent bout of underperformance has been enough to spur many to proclaim that the world is on the cusp of faster growth and the reach for yield play has seen its end. A review of our charts, however, suggests this period of counter-cyclical underperformance/cyclical outperformance may […]

China Slowdown Story has Moved into a New Phase as Government Props up Ailing Private Sector

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The last several days saw the release of the usual slue of monthly and quarterly economic stats out of China, which were mostly met with applause from the financial punditry as headline numbers beat expectations.  A look under the hood, however, reveals quite a different story. The composition of growth in China again markedly deteriorated in […]