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Counter-Cyclical Underperformance is Overdone Says Copper, CNY and Rates

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Counter-cyclical stocks have underperformed cyclical stocks by about 9% since Brexit lows. That recent bout of underperformance has been enough to spur many to proclaim that the world is on the cusp of faster growth and the reach for yield play has seen its end. A review of our charts, however, suggests this period of counter-cyclical underperformance/cyclical outperformance may […]

China Slowdown Story has Moved into a New Phase as Government Props up Ailing Private Sector

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The last several days saw the release of the usual slue of monthly and quarterly economic stats out of China, which were mostly met with applause from the financial punditry as headline numbers beat expectations.  A look under the hood, however, reveals quite a different story. The composition of growth in China again markedly deteriorated in […]

Unfortunately Stocks Are Not Oversold Here

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One would have thought that coming off of the worst day in the financial markets since 2008 stocks would been thoroughly oversold to such an extreme that a snap back rally would be inevitable. Unfortunately that is not the case today as our quantitative measures of oversoldness have yet to hit extremes reached at every […]