Taxes, Balance of Payments and the USD Paradox

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Investors were finally treated yesterday to some of the most important compromise provisions to come out of the House-Senate conference on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Among them were: 21% corporate rate Reduction of the top wage rate to 37% 20% deduction on pass-through income Full corporate expensing of capital investments for the next […]

Geopolitics Q&A with Peter Zeihan: Mexico’s New Drug War, North Korea, Russian Expansion

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We recently met with Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan to discuss three geopolitical shifts for US financial advisors to watch in the coming months. In this Q&A, we discuss: How the Mexican drug war fueled the U.S. opioid crisis; The chances of a pre-emptive strike on North Korea; and Why Russian troops aren’t leaving Belarus. Click to download […]

How Much More Can We Eek Out of the Econ Data?

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Several months ago we wrote that looser financial conditions should support economic data and stocks through year end. So far so good. Since then economic indicators such as the Markit manufacturing PMI have continued to chug higher and US stocks are up about 6%. With the economy seemingly on strong footing and and stocks hitting […]

Have We Seen Peak Home Price Growth this Cycle?

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The rise in home prices from the trough in 2009 has added $8tn to home values, pushing the value of homes to a level surpassing the 2006 peak (chart 1). In order to accomplish such dramatic growth, home price growth outpaced nominal household income growth in each of the last six years. In chart 2 […]

Quarterly Strategy Update: Dynamic Undercurrents

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Since the start of this year, the US Treasury market is signaling a scenario of rising growth expectations and falling inflation expectations, as reflected by the various components that comprise interest rates. In this quarter’s strategy update, Portfolio Manager Steven Vannelli, CFA, explores the following: Monetary policy: We examine the demographic shifts causing people to spend […]

Threats for Small Caps

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With some exceptions, smaller-cap stocks in the US tend to pay higher taxes than their larger-cap peers. As such, speculation that corporate tax rates may be cut has stoked the performance of US small caps recently. In addition to the concern that tax reform and/or tax cuts may get stalled, there are three other factors […]