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What is Driving US Treasury Rates Lower in 2020? January 29, 2020

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

10-Year US Treasury yields are down about 30bps so far this year, continuing the trend of lower rates that began in the fall of 2018 and confounding investor expectations for rising rates which would validate a turn up in economic activity. The primary driver of…

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Mid-Quarter Update: Spotlight on US Corporate Profits December 04, 2019

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

US corporate profits are down from the 2014 peak. In this mid-quarter special report, we dive deep into corporate profits, taxes, profit margins and the increasing government debt levels that have propelled stock and bond prices higher, in our view, leading to rising equity and government…

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4Q Growth Expectations Crashing: A Tailwind for Bonds November 15, 2019

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

Today’s US economic data releases have sent growth expectations plunging for fourth quarter GDP. First, retail sales ex-autos and gasoline rose only .1% in October, well below the .3% expectation. Second, industrial production fell twice as much as expected in October, dropping -.8% compared to…

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Confirmation of the Deterioration in Consumer Confidence September 25, 2019

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

In our mid-quarter update, we highlighted the plunge in the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence indicator, suggesting that “good feelings” among consumers were starting to fade. Often surveys offer a leading glimpse into economic activity. A more confident consumer is more likely to make those…

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In our work studying Knowledge Leaders, there’s a common thread: highly innovative companies often exist at the intersection of global trends that demand intensive R&D efforts to solve complex problems the world has never faced before. Coincidence? We don’t think so. The global population is…

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A Deep Dive into Consumer Confidence September 04, 2019

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

In this mid-quarter special report, we do a deep dive into the University of Michigan survey and discern what it may mean for the vigor of the consumer moving forward, prospects for a recession and consequences for asset allocation. Download the slides here: A Deep…

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German Banks: Cutting Off Nose to Spite Face August 07, 2019

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

Today Germany’s second largest bank, Commerzbank, reported a fourth straight quarter of falling revenue and projected lower profit for the year, suggesting clients have been impacted by trade tensions. Chief Executive Officer Martin Zielke describes the situation: “Despite all the successes we have made, challenges…

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