Blog

Has the Storm Passed in the Emerging Markets? July 19, 2018

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

Stock and currency markets often take their cues from the credit markets, so we find it instructive to keep a close eye on credit spreads and credit default swaps (CDS). Looking at the credit markets in the emerging markets, we think there may be initial…

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Yield Curve Inversion: Not What it Appears July 17, 2018

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

There has been considerable discussion lately about the slowly inverting yield curve and what it may signal for growth prospects going forward. Commonly used as a proxy for the yield curve is the spread between 10-Year US Treasury yields and 2-Year US Treasury yields. As…

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CNY Devaluation: Is It Different This Time? July 03, 2018

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

The Chinese Yuan has fallen precipitously in the last 10 weeks raising concerns of whether China was using the currency as a weapon to preemptively mitigate looming tariffs. A 6% devaluation over the last 10 weeks is a larger move than experienced in 2015/16. The…

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EM Capitulation June 21, 2018

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Yesterday, someone threw in the towel on EM bonds. The Van Eck JP Morgan Emerging Market Local Currency Debt ETF (EMLC) is the largest and most liquid vehicle to invest in emerging market local currency bonds. In one trade yesterday, someone pushed through a block…

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A Reflationary Inflection in Oil Inventories June 13, 2018

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Venezuela has experienced a collapse in oil production this year as the country sinks into chaos. Daily production is down from 1.7M barrels/day at the end of last year to just 1.44M barrels/day at the end of May. Year-over-year production declines are even larger, down…

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