Savvy investors know that its not always the stocks that you own that make you a good investor but many times it’s the stocks that you successfully avoid.
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Over the last several weeks, there has been a subtle change in the factors that have contributed most to performance trends for the MSCI World universe.
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US existing home sales fell by 4.9% in January to 4.82 million. This is the lowest level since April of last year. The western region remains by far the weakest region while the south remains the strongest. Months supply remained relatively steady at 4.7 months worth of supply in the market.
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On Tuesday, the spread between the US 10-year bond and the German 10-year bond reach 180 basis points (currently at 176 basis points). This was the widest spread since May 11, 1989.
Read MoreWe have developed two indexes that are designed to track the world’s leading innovators based on our proprietary intangible-adjusted data We have a developed markets knowledge leader index and an emerging markets knowledge leader index. Both indexes are equal-weighted and are rebalanced twice a year (April and October).
Read MoreThe growth leaders and laggards are becoming more apparent by the day – or at least analysts think so. In the below charts we show the median and average top line expected next twelve months growth estimates for certain economic sectors.
Read MoreWe have had a bit of cyclical bounce over the past month in the developed stock markets. Late cyclical sectors (energy, materials, industrials) are three of the top four performing sectors and the other top performing sector is an early cyclical sector (consumer discretionary).
Read MoreWe divide stocks in all ten economic sectors into four basic, equal weighted baskets:1) Early Cyclicals: These are consumer discretionary companies.2) Hyper Cyclicals: These are financial and technology companies.3) Late Cyclicals: These are energy, material and industrial companies.4) Counter-Cyclicals: These are telecom, utility, consumer staple and health care companies.
Read MoreOur good friend Jeff Saut from Raymond James highlighted our favorite topic in his daily ”Morning Tack” today. That topic of course is intangible capital! Our focus in Denver is finding companies that invest and create large reservoirs of intangible capital in order to deliver sustainable, growing earnings in the future.
Read MoreOver the last five years the signal given by investor positioning in options and futures contracts on the 30-year treasury bond has proven prescient. Each time commercial traders have moved to a long position in the long bond rates have been near a peak.
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