Blog

A Few Signs Are Pointing To A Lower US Savings Rate In 2015 February 06, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Since the depths of the financial crisis, the rebound in consumer credit has been polarized. On the one hand you have non-revolving consumer credit (i.e. car loans, student loans, etc.), which briefly declined on a year-over-year basis in 2009 and early 2010 before violently rebounding in 2011.

A Contrary Opinion On The US Employment Report February 06, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in News

One of the main features of the current recovery is the drop in the potential growth rate. In every other recovery since WW2, real GDP has risen back to potential as the recovery got going, thereby closing the output gap. This time around, the output gap has narrowed because potential GDP has been revised down.

Inflation Expectations Have Increased Since Mid-January February 06, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Since January 15th, 5-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 23 basis points from 105 basis points to 138 basis points. 10-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 16 basis points during this time and 30-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 8 basis points since the beginning of February.

A Deep Dive on Our Point-and-Figure Methodology February 06, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Portfolio Management

Familiar readers are aware that we use point-and-figure methodology as a technical complement to our extensive fundamental analysis. For a brief discussion of how it works, you may watch a video blog on the subject here. For more details, read on.

Regional Winners And Losers In The US From The Drop in Oil Prices February 05, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

The drop in oil prices has brought up a few questions with respect to who will benefit and who will be negatively impacted. There are regional PMI surveys and Federal Reserve surveys that can help fill in some of the gaps. For example, below is the Dallas Fed New Orders index and the Houston PMI.

The Keep It Simple, Stupid (KISS) Guide To Asset Allocation February 04, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Portfolio Management

Let’s say you have portfolio that invests in four asset classes: stocks, bonds, cash, and alternatives. The goal of the portfolio is simply to outperform the broad, global equity market (MSCI All Country World Index) over a multiple year time frame.

Real Trade-Weighted Dollar At A 141-Month High February 04, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

The real trade-weighted exchange rate index against major currencies has reached its highest level at the end of January since April 2003. The broader index is currently at a 69-month high. The major currency index includes six currencies (Euro, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Pound Sterling, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc).

Picking Up Signs Of Economic Distress In The US February 04, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

Recent US economic data has been disappointing. While perhaps statistical noise, more weak signs continue to mount. Let’s start with the durable goods orders reported recently. The headline stat is a very volatile series because aircraft and/or military orders can be quite lumpy.

Exploring Dollar Strength and its Effect (or not) on EPS and Sales Growth Expectations February 03, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

Last week we wrote a few posts here, here and here noting the significant deterioration in EPS and sales growth estimates over the last few months.

κοιτάξει έξω παρακάτω (That’s Greek for ‘Look Out Below’!) February 03, 2015

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

To say that Greek banks are underperforming is more than a gross understatement of fact. The visual representation of that performance, however, is really quite stunning.

Disclosures

The information presented here is for informational purposes only and is not to be construed as an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, securities. Some investments are not suitable for all investors, and there can be no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful. Hyperlinks may be included in this message that provide direct access to other internet resources, including web sites. While we believe these links are to reliable sources, Knowledge Leaders Capital (“KLC”) has no control over the accuracy or content of information contained on these sites. Although we make every effort to ensure such links are accurate, up to date and relevant, we have no control over pages maintained by external providers. The views expressed by these external providers on their own web pages or on external sites they link to are not necessarily those of Knowledge Leaders Capital.

The information provided on this blog is for illustrative or example purposes only and should not be construed as KLC’s opinion or investment outlook. As of the most recent quarter end, the named companies may have been held by KLC. For full information including additional policies and full disclosures, please visit our website: KnowledgeLeadersCapital.com.

Any reference to Index performance does not represent the performance of any investment product offered by Knowledge Leaders Capital, LLC. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. The performance of client account may vary from the Index performance. Index returns shown are not reflective of actual investor performance nor do they reflect fees and expenses applicable to investing.

Companies are selected for “Spotlights” based on high levels of innovation activities in their respective industries and illustrate innovation being employed across all sectors and geographies. Spotlight selection is separate from stock selection by the investment team. Spotlights are not necessarily representative of investment opportunities and can be selected regardless of investment performance or inclusion as a KLC holding.