The Widening Gap Between Europe’s ‘Hard’ and ‘Soft’ Data


Flash PMI data for Europe’s manufacturing sector, at 54.9 for December, paints an ever more positive picture, having surpassed the most recent high reached in early 2014 to retake levels not seen since 2011. The problem? Hard data (i.e. industrial production, released yesterday) isn’t keeping pace with the increasingly optimistic survey data. We’ll have to wait […]

Zew Survey Steady, but Looks More Like 2007 than 2013


The economic expectations component of Germany’s Zew Survey came in slightly lower than expected at 13.8 (steady, but undershooting consensus of 14.0). The current situation component remains firmly in positive territory, however, rising to 63.5–well above previous (58.8) and consensus expectations (59.1). Looking at the monthly data going back ten years, with data from each […]

Rise in Euro Break Up Odds. Thanks, Italy.


The Sentix Euro Break Up Index is on the rise again, up to 24.08 in the latest monthly reading (as of 11/30/2016). Unsurprisingly, the main driver of the overall increase is Italy. In advance of the constitutional referendum to be held this Sunday, the probability that the country will exit the eurozone (light blue line/ […]

Post-election Market Update & Conference Call


Today Chief Investment Officer Steven Vannelli, CFA, hosted a conference call to share the investment team’s analysis of the global equity and fixed income markets one week after the election. Click the link below to download the presentation. DOWNLOAD SLIDES A recording of the call will be available for replay later this afternoon. Dial-in: 855.859.2056, conference […]

Is U.K. CPI Really Set to Skyrocket?


Today’s CPI release by U.K.’s statistical service prompted more than a few versions of the following chart, insinuating that the precipitous drop in the GBP is going to drive prices sharply higher: While inflation is undoubtedly trending up from near zero last year, we would take a slightly less dramatic view of the situation. Looking […]