Rise in Euro Break Up Odds. Thanks, Italy.

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The Sentix Euro Break Up Index is on the rise again, up to 24.08 in the latest monthly reading (as of 11/30/2016). Unsurprisingly, the main driver of the overall increase is Italy. In advance of the constitutional referendum to be held this Sunday, the probability that the country will exit the eurozone (light blue line/ […]

Post-election Market Update & Conference Call

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Today Chief Investment Officer Steven Vannelli, CFA, hosted a conference call to share the investment team’s analysis of the global equity and fixed income markets one week after the election. Click the link below to download the presentation. DOWNLOAD SLIDES A recording of the call will be available for replay later this afternoon. Dial-in: 855.859.2056, conference […]

Is U.K. CPI Really Set to Skyrocket?

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Today’s CPI release by U.K.’s statistical service prompted more than a few versions of the following chart, insinuating that the precipitous drop in the GBP is going to drive prices sharply higher: While inflation is undoubtedly trending up from near zero last year, we would take a slightly less dramatic view of the situation. Looking […]

What Lies Beneath: German Banks’ Plummeting Profit Expectations

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Germany’s Zew survey of economic expectations surprised positively today, with the balance (dark blue line below) rising to 19.2 from 6.4 in May. Only 6.5% of survey participants expected conditions to worsen, while 25.7% anticipated an improvement in the economy. The majority of respondents (67.8%) forsee ‘no change’ in economic conditions. While markets cheered this […]

4 Charts From April’s ISM Manufacturing Report

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April’s ISM manufacturing report came in slightly below expectations. Economists were expecting the headline index to post 51.4 in April and instead it came in at 50.8, down from 51.8 in March. While the headline index slightly disappointed, we are beginning to see signs of improvement in prices, production and trade. The prices paid component […]