Mid-Quarter Update: The Monetary Policy Pitchfork

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The big three central banks (Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan) met this week to review their monetary stance. In this mid-quarter update, we share our analysis, The Monetary Policy Pitchfork. Summary: After a decade of emergency monetary policy, the major central banks are starting to normalize policy. The Federal Reserve […]

Fed Tightening Doesn’t Fully Explain EM Financial Market Weakness

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This week financial market participants were delivered a cogent explanation for the weakness in EM stocks, bonds and currencies by India’s central bank governor, Mr. Urjit Patel. In Mr. Patel’s opinion, the US Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy (most specifically balance sheet shrinkage, or the allowance by the Fed to let maturing bonds roll […]

Semiconductor Leadership Highlights the Rotation Into Value Stocks

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Semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment stocks have been stellar performers lately, a trend we have been a bit slow to recognize. So, I decided to do a deep dive on semis and semiconductor capital equipment stocks to see if there is opportunity left to capture. Indeed, when I combine the developed and emerging market industry […]

Quarterly Strategy Update: Volatility Shocks & Dollar Bears

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Price excesses have built up over a long bull market. Stocks are expensive, and the volatility shock wave is traveling the globe. This quarter, we discuss the risks correlated with the current volatility, potential new sources of instability, and the sectors that could be the performance beneficiaries of these trends. Our research indicates we have […]

Energy Stocks Are Starting to Flow

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Energy stocks are looking lively today, with energy the best performing sector in the US and second best performing sector in Europe. The likely reason for the buoyant performance is a continued improvement in fundamentals. Inventory data released yesterday showed a steady decline in crude and refined product (ex-SPR) in the United States. Total barrels […]