Our Contrarian Call: A Bullish Thesis on the Energy Sector

1

Back in December 2016, we discussed our expectation for lower longer-term US interest rates, which we used to justify an aversion to financial stocks. This expectation played out. We also discussed our rotation into the resources sector. We suggested that sometimes rotations can be bumpy, and indeed the last six months has been a bumpy […]

Risk Management 101: Diversification (Easier Said Than Done)

1

There are three basic ways to manage the risk of an equity portfolio: Diversify, by owning a collection of stocks from different industries Hedge, by shorting stocks or equity futures Buy insurance, like buying an out-of-the-money put option. The essence of diversification is choosing assets that are not perfectly correlated with each other. The logic […]

If Trump Gets Taxes and Infrastructure, Who Pays, and What Does it Mean for Stocks?

Pic1

With the dissolution of health care legislation barely final, murmurers out of Washington seem to suggest tax reform/cuts and infrastructure may be tackled in tandem in a way that attracts bipartisan support. If it comes to pass, it would go a long way in meeting the market’s expectations for pro-growth policies from the new administration. But […]

Companies with the Lowest Dividend Yields Are Driving Performance

affe64af214f400c8dfa52e001716291

In the month of January, the most important factor correlation to performance of developed market stocks has been dividend yield (DY). Interestingly, though, the best performance has been generated in those stocks that belong to the lowest decile (those that pay a smaller dividend relative to their share price) while those with the highest DY have […]

Positive Revisions to Estimates Surge

0d43790cd76b4383907afa6b2aa14b77

The percentage of positive revisions to developed market sales and earnings estimates jumped over the last month, with an average of 76% of companies reporting better sales estimates and 70% reporting better earnings estimates. Developed Markets (DM) DM Americas has remained the most steady of the three regions as ~50% of companies have reported positive revisions […]