Archive | September, 2015

World CPI Proxy Breaks Below 1%


There’s been a lot of of deflationary data recently (see here, here and here). The plunge in our simple World CPI proxy to the lowest level since October 2009 doesn’t really catch us off guard. The fact that one third of the 33 countries in our proxy are currently are seeing year-over-year declines in consumer prices is a […]

Europe’s (Bond) Bull Market


Inflation isn’t the only indicator that seems intent on moving ever lower— the trend towards below-zero government bond yields in many European countries continues.  While most have not followed in Switzerland’s footsteps (where yields are negative out to ten years) quite yet, German 5-year yields have hit the zero mark and France’s 4-year government bond is just […]

The Anatomy Of A Retest Of The Low


The S&P 500 is now only about 1% off its 8/25 low. Have the market internals deteriorated as much as the headline price index has? Lets take a quick tour through our chart library to find out. On 8/25, 17% of US stocks were trading below its 200-day moving average. As of yesterday, this series […]

Asset Purchases and Continued Deflation


We’ve noted quite a few data releases that point to deflationary trends recently– see here, here, and here for details. Following a rebound from the sharp drop in January of this year, preliminary figures indicate that inflation is back in negative territory for Germany: And it isn’t just consumer prices– import prices have been falling […]

Daily Financial Markets Chart Wrap

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Highlights: Testing the lows seems like an apt description of the action today in global stocks The weakness started in Japan with the Topix off 1.7% and then permeated Europe and culminated with the US market down about 2.6% Health Care (-2.8%), Energy (-3.6%) and Materials (-2.5%) led the selloff today as Utilities and Staples […]

Have The Volatilty ETFs Turned A Corner?


Trying to play pure volatility as a retail investor is tough. Not only can you not invest directly in the widely watched VIX, but ETFs that attempt to track the VIX end up with a substantial tracking error. This occurs because volatility ETFs such as the ProShares Vix Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY) track an index made […]