Archive | October, 2015

Foreigners Are Once Again Accumulating US Corporate Bonds

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An under appreciated consequence of the financial crisis is the fact that foreigners became net sellers of US corporate bonds for an unprecedented 7 years. It is unprecedented because from 1984 to 2008, the one-year moving average of net purchases of US corporate bonds by private foreigners never even dipped into negative territory. As the financial […]

Today at 4:15pm ET: Knowledge Leaders Indexes Quarterly Conference Call

The Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Indexes continue to outperform benchmarks and actively managed funds. You’re invited to dial in to today’s quarterly index conference call.  Steve Vannelli will discuss recent performance and updates from September’s rebalance. Call details: Add Event Today, Oct. 15 at 4:15pm ET Dial-in: 877.515.8156  ID: 57950603 Download slides On July 8, 2015, we launched two […]

The Slowdown In Global Trade In 6 Charts

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The last two US recessions have severely damaged the growth rate in global trade. In each case, the trend growth rate of trade since 1991 (which is when the CPB World Trade Monitor data begins) was effectively cut by at least a percent. Emerging markets have helped to keep global trade afloat especially relative to […]

Bonds are Not Buying the Rally off the 8/24 Low, Calling into Question Cyclical Leadership Trend

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Given the cyclical leadership dynamics since the 8/24 low in stocks, one would have guessed that bonds would have sold off in lockstep with stocks rising. One would have been wrong. Since 8/24 it’s been energy, tech, materials discretionary and industrial leading the way with health care, telecom and utilities bringing up the rear. That […]

Don’t Let One “Weak” Retail Sales Report Spook You

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The headline monthly retail sales number increased just 0.1% MoM in September as sales at gas stations weighed down the headline as it declined by 3.2% MoM. In what is being considered as another sign of weakness, August’s more robust report was revised down slightly as well. Is this month’s report cause for concern? We don’t think […]

A New Leadership Group in Europe?

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Year-to-date, the best performing sectors in developed Europe have been Consumer Discretionary (10.94%), Consumer Staples (10.78%), and Health Care (7.83%). Since the August low, the Energy sector has bested all others, gaining nearly 13%.  Have we witnessed a dramatic change in leadership for the region?  Probably not.  What is interesting, though, is that Consumer Staples […]

Have Stock Market Internals Turned The Corner?

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Several weeks ago, we noted that several signs had popped up that the worst of the rout in emerging market stocks may be behind us. So far at least, the market agrees as EM stocks have gained over 7% over the past three weeks. Today, we are going to go through a similar exercise but this time […]