Archive | November, 2015

This Chart is Too Ugly for Comfort


It’s quite easy to get carried away with the drawing of conclusions based on a few technical chart patterns (and we are not doing that here!), but this chart is just too ugly to at least go unmentioned. What we’re looking at is the percent of stocks in our own Gavekal Capital International DM Americas Index […]

Q: Is the IMF’s Inclusion of the Chinese Yuan in the Special Drawing Rights Basket a Reserve Currency Game Changer? A: No!

Today the International Monetary Fund (IMF) met economy watcher’s expectations and announced the inclusion of the Chinese yuan in the basket of currencies that make up the Special Drawing Right (SDR) units that the IMF uses in making loans. The yuan now joins the US dollar, euro, pound and yen as an “official” reserve currency […]

Consumer Spending Gets Off To A Slightly Slower Start In The 4Q

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US consumer spending started the fourth quarter by slightly missing expectations. Nominal personal consumption expenditures increased just 0.1% MoM in October versus expectations of a 0.3% increase. The core-PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, also came in below expectations as prices were unchanged in October from September. Economists had expected a 0.2% […]

Looking at Mutual Fund and ETF YTD Returns (interactive)

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2015 has been a pretty trying year in the investment management industry. On the whole, both the median mutual fund and the median ETF have had negative performance through October. Of the 5395 mutual funds that we have performance for the median year-to-date performance is just -0.90% (average is -1.80%). The mutual fund space has […]

Wal-Mart: Intangible Perspective


Wal-Mart (ticker: WMT) has had a rough go of it lately as its stock price has fallen by over 30% over the past year. Part of the reason for WMT’s underperformance has been due to concerns over higher employee training costs and other intangible investments the company is undertaking. From a long-term perspective, regularly readers know that […]

Where Are All Of The New 52-Week Highs?


A concerning trend in the equity market has been the steady decline over the past couple of years in the number of stocks that are making new 52-week price highs. Generally speaking, a steady increase in the number of stocks that are making a new 52-week high means that breadth in the equity market is […]

Falling German Yields Continue to Weigh on Cyclicals


Excepting the slightly higher rates at the long end of the curve over the last month, German yields have generally continued lower over the last year. While German’s 10-year benchmark bund flirts with support of its 200-day moving average… We are particularly wary of the potential effects on interest-rate sensitive, cyclical European equities (especially those […]