Archive | December, 2015

Economic Surprises Around The World (interactive)

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With the Federal Reserve on the verge of raising rates for the first time in this cycle and the ECB moving in the opposite direct by recently announcing an expansion in its monetary easing regime, we thought it would be an appropriate time to take a look at where economic releases are beating expectations (and aren’t) around the world. […]

Is German Industrial Production Signaling Recession?


Industrial production anywhere we look is pretty much non-existant, a theme we have addressed frequently in this forum (here, here, and here, for starters) as well as in our latest quarterly. And, in keeping with the status quo, German industrial production figures released today showed marginal improvement, whether one looks at a month-over-month or a year-over-year […]

Yawn…The Median Stock In The World Is Flat YTD

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We are nearing the end of the 2015 and the median stock in the world (DM and EM combined) has gone absolutely nowhere (all returns are in USD). The good news for investors is that this is a significant improvement from the end of September when the median stock was down 10%. If we look […]

2015: Growth Counter-Cyclical Kind Of Year

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When we look at the broader stock market, we like to break out the 10 economic sectors into five smaller groups: growth counter-cyclicals (health care, consumer staples), defensive counter-cyclicals (telecom, utilities), early cyclicals (consumer discretionary), late cyclicals (energy, materials, industrials) and hyper cyclicals (financials, information technology). It’s a useful template for understanding where we are in […]

Knowledge Leaders Company Spotlight: Unilever Plc


Unilever Plc (ticker: ULVR-GB) is a U.K.-based, multinational consumer staples company that operates in three global segments: Asia, Africa, & Central and Eastern Europe, the Americas, and Western Europe. Emerging markets account for nearly 60% of the company’s business. Unilever’s products are divided into Personal Care, Foods, Refreshment, and Home Care. The Personal Care segment […]

The Dollar’s Run May Just Be Getting Started


As the dollar continues to move to multi-year highs, we are reminded that very few market moves matter as much as what happens to the reserve currency of the world. We have noted several times that a stronger dollar tends to be associated with lower profit margins (but higher US equity multiples), lower commodity prices, and lower […]