Archive | January, 2016

Denmark Is THE Bright Spot?


With ~80% of all stocks down since last May’s highs, and market sentiment fairly (shall we say?) stressed, we sometimes find it helpful to take a step back and try to look at the bigger picture. Regular readers are familiar with our use of a proprietary point-and-figure methodology that we use to help us avoid […]

Cyclical Earnings Estimates Keep Falling, Health Care Estimates Actually Rising (interactive)


Earnings estimates and sales estimates continue to decline over the past month, especially in cyclical sectors. In the table below, we show the average 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month change in earnings and sales estimates. Readers can select an individual country or select “All” to see data for the entire developed world. Energy stocks have seen […]

Just How Narrow is This Market? Two Visualizations to Illustrate the Importance of Good Active Management


Most stocks are down since the global equity markets peaked on 5/21/2015 (this goes without saying) and most stocks are down a lot. This puts a premium on solid active management and stock picking. But the sheer numbers are striking. Of the 2885 companies in our GKCI All Country World Index, fully 2383 (or 83%) of them […]

One Positive Signal Amid A Growing Recessionary Storm

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There are several recessionary warning flags in the US (and global) economy popping up right now. Industrial production has steadily fallen and is 2% of its high, corporate profits look set to decline once again in the fourth quarter and the price of oil has plummeted. However, one important recessionary signal is still far from flashing red: the […]

Can The Yen Buck The Stronger Dollar Trend?

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The dollar keeps on chugging along to higher and higher values. According to the nominal trade-weighted USD index (major currencies), the dollar has gained 1.4% since the Fed raised rates on 12/16/2015. While not a major move, it’s large enough to increase the nominal trade-weighted USD index to a level it hasn’t reached since 2003. The […]

What’s Done What Since The May 21st High?

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As regular readers are aware, we like to track performance off of major equity tops and lows. This simple exercise can help identify leadership trends. Not surprisingly, the counter-cyclical sectors have held up much better than the cyclical sectors since the overall equity market made high back in May. Health care, consumer staples, and utilities […]

This week: Quarterly Conference Calls

Portfolio Manager Steve Vannelli will host two quarterly conference calls to update investors on recent performance and outlook for the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders investment products. A US mutual fund call will take place tomorrow, January 21 at 4:15pm ET. On Friday, January 22 at 2pm ET, Steve will host the first quarterly call on our […]