Archive | January, 2016

Will Weak Closes Drag Markets Down?


Our Gavekal Capital Net Close Indicator is designed to help get a sense of investors’ conviction level. It is calculated by subtracting the value of the Weak Close Indicator from that of the Strong Close Indicator, each of which counts the number of times (over the previous six months) that stocks closed in the bottom […]

Are EM Stocks About To Take Another Major Leg Down?


Our GKCI Emerging Markets Index broke down to its lowest level since July 2009. The index is already off 25% from the 2015 high. Are emerging market stocks about to take another large step lower? Market internals suggest that the most likely course of action for EM stocks is that they don’t break much further […]

Aligning Sales Growth Expectations With History (interactive)

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Analysts are significantly ratcheting downs sales growth expectations for US companies compared to the actual growth rate companies have delivered over the previous five years. In the interactive table below, we show actual sales per share growth, annualized, over the past five years for each US industry group in dark blue. In light blue, we show what […]