Archive | May, 2016

2/3 Of Global Stocks Are Down Since 5/21/2015

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We are now out over a year since most major equity indexes made a new high.  The MSCI World Index, for example, made a new high of 1810 on May 21st, 2015. Today, it sits at about 1677, or 7.3% off the 5/21/2015 high. Since 5/21/2015, 2 out of 3 mid-large cap stocks have declined. In […]

Fishing in a Stocked Pond: 87% Of Consumer Staples Stocks Have Outperformed Over The Past Year

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We have blogged about consumer staples several times this month (see here and here) and for good reason. Consumer staples is the only GKCI DM sector out of 10 that has managed to surpass the May 2015 high. Given this, it isn’t surprising to see that a lot of consumer staples stocks have been outperforming the MSCI World. However, […]

Investors Are Focusing On Earnings And Sales Estimates

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About one month ago, we noted how investors were favoring high P/E stocks. Over the past month, focus has shifted to changes in earnings and sales estimates. Over the past month, the three factors (out of 30) that have had the highest correlation to the returns of GKCI DM Index are 1-month change in EPS estimates, […]

China is Doubling Down on State Directed Growth


Over the weekend we got the monthly slue of Chinese data around fixed asset investment, credit creation, retail sales, and industrial production. Generally speaking, the data was soft, with misses in all categories. But one data point continues to stand out to us as evidence of the not-so-subtle involvement of government sponsored entities in the […]

Valuations are a Reason to Favor Active Management at this Stage

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It would be tough to make the case that aggregate valuations are low at this stage in the bull market, and that valuation expansion is a likely tailwind to further equity gains. Alas, aggregate valuations are only one measure, and while aggregate measures do indeed point to heightened “valuation risk”, individual company valuations remain highly […]