Archive | June, 2016

Unfortunately Stocks Are Not Oversold Here


One would have thought that coming off of the worst day in the financial markets since 2008 stocks would been thoroughly oversold to such an extreme that a snap back rally would be inevitable. Unfortunately that is not the case today as our quantitative measures of oversoldness have yet to hit extremes reached at every […]

What Lies Beneath: German Banks’ Plummeting Profit Expectations


Germany’s Zew survey of economic expectations surprised positively today, with the balance (dark blue line below) rising to 19.2 from 6.4 in May. Only 6.5% of survey participants expected conditions to worsen, while 25.7% anticipated an improvement in the economy. The majority of respondents (67.8%) forsee ‘no change’ in economic conditions. While markets cheered this […]

Knowledge Leader Spotlight: Siemens


German industrial conglomerate, Siemens, made a splash last Friday when it announced the combination of its wind turbine business with Spanish renewables company, Gamesa. With the latter’s already significant exposure in developing markets such as India, the deal was well received (judging by the 3% daily gain in Siemens’ stock price). While Knowledge Leaders are […]

Global Inflation Data Still Soft But Improving In EM, Asia-Pacific

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Over the past three or four years, global inflation data releases have continuously underwhelmed. The Citi Inflation Surprise Index, the less followed cousin of the Citi Economic Surprise Index, has consistently been negative for the last several years. In the US, excluding a brief trip into positive territory in July 2014, the index has been negative […]

Dismal Sales & EPS Revisions in DM EMEA Obscured by Increasingly Positive Trends in DM Asia


Among all developed world stocks, about 50% have enjoyed positive revisions to sales and/ or earnings over the last 1-, 3-, and 6-month periods: Taking a closer look into each region, we find considerable divergences in the breadth of positive revisions. Starting with DM Americas, we find a slightly more negative tendency in both sales […]