Archive | August, 2016

The Role of CNY in Europe’s Retail Confidence Crisis


Yesterday, we took an in-depth look at the fairly disappointing business and consumer surveys out of Europe, remarking that the retail confidence portion of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) fell the most of any component. Respondents indicated significantly more pessimistic opinions with respect to both the present (blue bar) and expected (black bar) business elements of […]

Tutto bene? Italian Surveys Say Not So Much.


Today’s survey data from Italy was worse than expected and a stark contrast to marginally stronger (or, at least, flatish) data out of Germany and France last week. Current consumer confidence readings hover just above where they were prior to the plunge in 2008/2009 while business confidence remains higher: These trends suggest we will see […]

A Leveling of the Playing Field?


Over the last decade, the more powerful decline in the GBP versus the dollar (and especially since Brexit) has had notable effects on stock price performance when compared to peers denominated in EUR. Right up to the Brexit vote on June 23rd, the correlation between stocks included in continental Europe’s Stoxx 50 and those included […]

Focus On Where Outperformance Is Occurring

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An old mentor of ours used to quip that a portfolio full of outperforming stocks will outperform the market. Obvious? Of course. Easy to do in practice? Not so much. One of the simplest ways to build a portfolio of outperforming stocks is to focus your investment attention and effort on sectors of the market where the […]

Counter-Cyclical Underperformance is Overdone Says Copper, CNY and Rates


Counter-cyclical stocks have underperformed cyclical stocks by about 9% since Brexit lows. That recent bout of underperformance has been enough to spur many to proclaim that the world is on the cusp of faster growth and the reach for yield play has seen its end. A review of our charts, however, suggests this period of counter-cyclical underperformance/cyclical outperformance may […]