Archive | September, 2016

To All the Bond Market Chicken Littles Out There


Yesterday, when it seemed everyone was getting a bit overexcited about the severity of recent market weakness, we took a look at some of our internal indicators and found that just two sectors have reached technically oversold levels (details here). Today, the topic du jour seems to be the impending rise in U.S. rates and […]

A Lot of US Econ Releases Today…Let’s Do a Roundup


On the margin, the releases today weren’t very pretty. We will begin with the biggest surprises of the day: retail sales and industrial production. Retail sales were expected to fall by 0.1% month-over-month in August and ended up actually falling by -0.3%. Core retail sales have lost some momentum as well. In June the 6-month […]

The Nitty-Gritty of Currency Hedged Bonds


If you are like us and try to read as much economic research and market commentary as you can, you have probably noticed several stories regarding currency hedged government bonds. If you haven’t, then the gist is that even though nominal government bond yields are much higher in the US relative to the other major bond markets […]

The VIX is Probably Set To Increase On The Margin

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It’s pretty widely recognized that August and September tend to be weak months for the stock market traditionally. And we all know that when stocks are weak, the VIX tends to increase. Well, we survived August with very little volatility as the VIX is down 43.6% YoY. However, the latest global PMI data is suggesting that in the coming […]

The Most Important Stat in the Employment Report

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The most important stat in the employment report each month is the index of aggregate weekly hours worked. The headline payroll employment number tells you how many people have a job. The hours worked statistic tells you many how many hours, on average, each employee worked. The index of aggregate weekly hours worked blends these variables together and […]