Archive | October, 2016

Is U.K. CPI Really Set to Skyrocket?

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Today’s CPI release by U.K.’s statistical service prompted more than a few versions of the following chart, insinuating that the precipitous drop in the GBP is going to drive prices sharply higher: While inflation is undoubtedly trending up from near zero last year, we would take a slightly less dramatic view of the situation. Looking […]

Yuan Downside Breakout Is On and What It Means

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The onshore yuan exchange rate (CNY) against the USD  has eclipsed 6.74 today while offshore exchange rate (CNH) was pushing 6.75 yesterday before falling back a bit today. Current levels are at 6-year lows against the dollar and it will be interesting to see what happens as we approach 6.80-6.85 as this was the line in the […]

Inflation Expectations are Out Ahead of Fed Rate Expectations

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5-year, 5-year forward breakeven inflation has historically been in a range between 2-3%. However, over the past year year future inflation expectations have fallen below 2% for the first time since the financial crisis and have bounce around between 1.40% and 2%. Inflation expectations have increased by 35 bps since the beginning of July. It seems, however, […]

Parsing a Weak JOLTS Report

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The August JOLTS release was a pretty big disappointment. Expectations were for 5.8 million job openings while the actual data came in at 5.44 million. Additionally, the job openings level and the job openings rate are both at YTD lows. Why this weak release is concerning is that job openings tend to lead the payrolls by […]

US Petroleum Goods Trade Deficit Lowest Since 1990

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The shale revolution in the US energy sector has flipped US trade data on its head. The US has moved from a trade deficit in petroleum goods of nearly 3% of nominal GDP in 2008 to now having the smallest petroleum goods trade deficit in over 25 years (data only goes back to 1990). In 2008, […]