Archive | November, 2016

Private Fixed Investment is at Recessionary Levels


Since the introduction of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) in 1946, the US has experienced 11 recessions. In every recession nonresidential private fixed investment slowed significantly on a year-over-year basis and in eight out of 11 recessions, private fixed investment actually declined on a year-over-year basis. And only once, in 1986-1987, did the year-over-year […]

Treasury-Bund Spread Widest Since 1989


The official date that the Berlin Wall fell is November 9th, 1989. The last time the spread between US and German 10-year government bonds had such a large yield differential was on May 10th, 1989, as in before the fall of the Berlin Wall. Let that sink in for moment. And it’s not just 10-year […]

Strongest Market Closes are in Japan


As U.S. equity markets continue to forge new highs, we take a look at our strong and weak close indicators to gauge investors’ conviction levels in the latest moves. The strong close indicator is calculated by recording the cumulative number of days over the last 130 trading days (26 weeks) that the index has closed […]

Tempering US Economic Growth Expectations


Listen, before we go through a litany of economic charts that pour some cold water on the recent bout of optimism regarding US economic growth prospects we want to stress that we don’t believe economic growth is about to fall off of a cliff. Quite the contrary, we feel that we are on the same “muddle-through” growth […]

DM EMEA Equities: Leadership Wanted


Preliminary data from Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey, released today, convey an overall positive picture for the Eurozone as a whole. The composite index rose (unexpectedly) to 54.1 from 53.3 in October. Eurozone PMI Manufacturing also rose unexpectedly (to 53.7 from 53.5, avoiding the anticipated decline to 53.3), in spite of small declines in […]

What Has Worked and What Hasn’t With a Stronger Dollar


Regardless of the series you use, the USD seems to have broken out of a 20-month trading range and is trading at the highest level in well over a decade. Over the past 10-years, there have been some strong equity sector relationships with the the USD. Since this summer, some of these relationships have moved […]

Post-election Market Update & Conference Call


Today Chief Investment Officer Steven Vannelli, CFA, hosted a conference call to share the investment team’s analysis of the global equity and fixed income markets one week after the election. Click the link below to download the presentation. DOWNLOAD SLIDES A recording of the call will be available for replay later this afternoon. Dial-in: 855.859.2056, conference […]

Equity Breadth is Sending a Negative Signal About Growth Prospects


We all know that stocks are a leading indicator of economic growth and disappointingly recent breadth measures suggest that economic activity may slow over the next several months. In the charts below, we show the percentage of stocks trading above the 200-day moving average for various market aggregates, regions and sectors (with a 1-quarter lead) […]