Archive | February, 2017

6 Industry Groups that Appear to be Short-Term Overbought

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Out of 24 developed market industry groups, six currently look overbought in the short-term. Two come from the financial sector, two come from the technology sector, one from consumer staples sector (surprisingly) and one from the materials sector.   Below we plot the percentage of stocks trading above the 65-day moving average (blue line) and […]

‘Growth’ Stocks Are Outperforming in 2017…Are Lower Bond Yields Next?

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After underperforming in 2016, growth stocks have once again started to outperform value stocks in 2017. As the chart below illustrates, the S&P 500 Value Index consistently outperformed the S&P 500 Growth Index from 2002-2006. Since 2007, however, growth stocks have outperformed value stocks with value outperforming growth in just two calendar years (2012 and 2016) […]

French Economic Uncertainty at All-Time Highs


The rise in European government bond yields has been widespread since lows in early fall last year, led by Italy and (now) France. As investors turn to the relative safety of bunds, the spread between French and German yields (light blue line below) has risen to multi-year highs. In addition, the economic policy uncertainty index […]

Positive Revisions to Estimates Surge


The percentage of positive revisions to developed market sales and earnings estimates jumped over the last month, with an average of 76% of companies reporting better sales estimates and 70% reporting better earnings estimates. Developed Markets (DM) DM Americas has remained the most steady of the three regions as ~50% of companies have reported positive revisions […]

Another Chart Going Against Consensus On The Dollar

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Conventional wisdom in the market right now is that the dollar is only headed in one direction: higher. Many believe that the policies the new administration will ultimately put in place are undoubtedly bullish for the dollar even as weak-dollar comments are coming out of the oval office. In recent posts, we have been pushing against consensus […]