Zew Survey Steady, but Looks More Like 2007 than 2013

The economic expectations component of Germany’s Zew Survey came in slightly lower than expected at 13.8 (steady, but undershooting consensus of 14.0). The current situation component remains firmly in positive territory, however, rising to 63.5–well above previous (58.8) and consensus expectations (59.1). Looking at the monthly data going back ten years, with data from each January noted for reference, the chart below plots the two variables together and we find that the combination remains safely in the upper right quadrant (i.e. both are positive).

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For comparison, we look at the last time the economic expectations component was close to the current level but then crossed below zero– between July and August, 2007. Over the course of the next year, as the economic expectations component continued to fall (reaching a low of -63.9 in July 2008), the current situation component gradually deteriorated– falling from a high of 88.20 in July 2007 and crossing below zero in September 2008 (i.e. near the bottom of the expectations component).

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While today’s data does not warrant any serious freakout, we would simply note that, at current levels, this survey looks more like 2007 than 2013.

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