In honor of Black Friday, we thought we would look at how the North American retailers look from a technical perspective using our relative point and figure charts. Once again, our box size is 2.5% relative performance and all charts have four years worth of history.
Coach may be in the VERY initial phase of forming a base. However, this may simply be a pause before the next phase of underperformance begins. We probably wouldn’t risk cutting ourselves trying to catch this falling knife.
Fossil has been in a trading range for almost all of the past four years. There is no significant trend change in sight.
Gildan Activewear turned a breakdown in 2012 into 2+ years of outperformance. Gildan’s positive technical formation is an outlier within this group which would temper our bullishness.
Lululemon has had a rough go of it the last couple of years. However, it looks as if it may have formed a base. The stock is moving up towards the resistance line. Whether the stock can over come this downtrend line will determine if Lululemon has actually turned the corner.
Michael Kors looks to be breaking down. However, given the relative steady move higher in the stock the decline may be less volatile as well.
PVH looks like it may be in the initial stages of a multi-year period of underperformance.
Ralph Lauren looks similar to PVH but just a little further along in the downtrend. It would not be surprising to see Ralph Lauren begin a period of underperformance as it has rebounded towards the resistance line.
VF continues its impressive bull run. This stock is extremely over extended both in terms of time and and distance from support
Gap is sitting on the knife’s edge and a few poor performance days may push it down into a serious underperformance spiral.
L Brands has broken out to new highs after looking as if it was in a topping formation for the past few years. This is generally a bullish sign.
Ross Stores looks similar to the Gap except that it has bounced off of support. However, it will have to power through previous highs in order for us to believe that the uptrend has resumed. We would think that this would be hard to accomplish.
TJX is another stock that looks similar to the Gap and Ross Stores. It is currently at overhead resistance with the definite possibility of a significant decline towards the 45 degree support line.
Urban Outfitters is fighting to get back above the multi-year support level at approximate;y F in the chart below. However, if it can’t remain above that line than that is a very bearish signal and that level may become a strong resistance level for years to come.