Consumer Spending Gets Off To A Slightly Slower Start In The 4Q

US consumer spending started the fourth quarter by slightly missing expectations. Nominal personal consumption expenditures increased just 0.1% MoM in October versus expectations of a 0.3% increase. The core-PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, also came in below expectations as prices were unchanged in October from September. Economists had expected a 0.2% monthly increase. October tends to be a weaker month when it comes to real PCE so the  good news is that real personal consumption expenditures are 2.7% higher than a year ago. On average since 2000, the YoY increase has been just 2.29% in October. Real core-PCE, real goods, and real services spending all came in above their average YoY growth rate since 2000 as well. In the table below, you can see the YoY growth rates can compare across various years or by specific months.