At the heart of Abenomics is the presumption (or hope?) that a lower yen will stimulate export volume. Indeed September exports denominated in yen were up about 11.5% year over year. But real exports were up just .4%.
Last week with most of the attention being on whether or not the US Government would be able to get a deal done to raise the debt ceiling and fund the government, the factor with the highest R-square performance was Beta.
On a weekly closing basis we can see quite clearly that the number of new 52 week highs in Europe has continued to expand while the MSCI Europe index makes new cyclical highs.
We calculate the percentage of companies above certain moving averages (MA). Generally, when 70-80% of companies are above a MA, stocks are overbought and when only 20-30%, are above a MA, stocks are oversold. Currently, 89% of MSCI North America companies are above the 5-day MA, 84% are above the 50-day MA.
Over the last four years, the derived inflation expectation of 30 year US Treasury bonds have moved in tandem with US Dollar. When the USD falls, inflation expectations rise, and when the USD rises, inflation expectations fall. Since mid-September, the US Dollar Index has fallen from over 82 to under 80.
US existing home sales dropped 1.9% in September following a downwardly revised reading for August. Median home selling price has fallen over 7% since making a 5-year high in June. The number of months supply has remained right around 5 months over the past half year.
One way to look at volatility of stock markets is to look at the standard deviation of returns or a volatility index like the VIX.
QuestionWhat are speculators long right now? Answer1) Stocks – from the E-mini S&P500, to the E-mini NASDAQ, to the E-mini Dow, to the E-mini Russell 2000 QuestionWhat are speculators short right now?