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Mid-Quarter Update: The Fed is Tightening More than it Realizes

midqchart

The Federal Reserve is in the midst of an historic tightening cycle, and it has begun to impact the economy.  The latest casualty is the decline in oil prices, which opens up a new set of possibilities in asset allocation. In this special report, we look at the collective causes and effects of US monetary policy. We also describe historically […]

Quarterly Strategy Update: The Investment Consequences of a Normalization in Long Rates

p3 quarterly

On this quarter’s conference call, Steve and Bryce dissected US Treasury bonds, discussing the message of the rates market and how this is directing asset allocation. The following slide deck covers their discussion of the following: The bond market has enjoyed a 10-year tailwind from a collapsing term premium. We believe this is probably over […]

What We’re Reading

Straight Talk

Recently we were asked about the latest books and ideas contributing to our economic analysis. Here’s an incomplete list of what we’ve been reading this summer. Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy  By Dani Rodrik A discussion of free trade and how nations can sensibly chart a path forward in today’s […]

Quarterly Strategy Update: What We Know, What We Think & What We Are Unsure Of

q2

Recently, fears of a slowdown in global growth brought on by a trade war have led to turbulence in cyclical assets. The US Dollar has risen while commodities and emerging markets have struggled. The Chinese Yuan has depreciated significantly, recalling fears of the 2014-2016 industrial recession. This quarter, we examine the outlook for economic growth […]

Mid-Quarter Update: The Monetary Policy Pitchfork

mid 1

The big three central banks (Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan) met this week to review their monetary stance. In this mid-quarter update, we share our analysis, The Monetary Policy Pitchfork. Summary: After a decade of emergency monetary policy, the major central banks are starting to normalize policy. The Federal Reserve […]