Archive by Author

Risks For the Second Half of 2019 Are Mounting by the Day: Part 2

Pic3

Yesterday we wrote about three macro factors that will act to restrain economic growth through the rest of 2019 and into 2020. Those risks are the baked-in fiscal tightening, the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening, and growth retarding trade policy. Together, they could restrain growth to levels well below expectations and induce a profits […]

Which Way the US Dollar Breaks Will Have Major Asset Allocation Implications for the Second Half of 2019

Pic2

The US dollar is on the cusp of making a major move. The question is which way will it go, higher or lower? The directional movement of the US dollar will have significant asset performance implications once the tug of war between dollar bears and bulls is resolved. The US dollar index has been consolidating […]

Lumber and Copper Prices are Diverging – Which is Signal and Which is Noise?

Pic1

The tale from some of the most cyclical and predictive economic indicators are telling investors two very different things at the moment. Copper, the metal with a PhD in economics is giving us the all-clear sign while lumber, which is perhaps only regarded as having a master’s or bachelor’s in economics, is saying, “be careful.” […]