A Deep Dive into Consumer Confidence

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In this mid-quarter special report, we do a deep dive into the University of Michigan survey and discern what it may mean for the vigor of the consumer moving forward, prospects for a recession and consequences for asset allocation. Download the slides here: A Deep Dive into Consumer Confidence.    

German Banks: Cutting Off Nose to Spite Face

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Today Germany’s second largest bank, Commerzbank, reported a fourth straight quarter of falling revenue and projected lower profit for the year, suggesting clients have been impacted by trade tensions. Chief Executive Officer Martin Zielke describes the situation: “Despite all the successes we have made, challenges continue to increase for the industry and for us… This […]

Bad News is Good News on Payroll Friday

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All eyes will be on the payroll report on Friday for clues about what it means for the Fed’s next move. Indeed, the payroll report will be the most important US economic data point between now and the Fed’s next meeting at the end of July, so the stakes are high and expectations have been […]

Is the Fed Already Behind the Curve?

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To cut or not to cut is no longer the question. Now the question is the quantity, magnitude and timing of rate cuts for the rest of the year. This week was an important one in that we were privy to several important Fed speeches as well as some informative data about the state of […]

The Fed’s Many Options for Tomorrow

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Tomorrow will obviously be one of the most important news days of the year for financial markets with the Fed expected at the very least to signal that a rate cutting cycle is in the offing. Indeed, since the Fed last raised rates the yield curve has inverted at the important 10Y-3M spread, inflation expectations […]