US CPI Makes The Rare Plunge Into Negative Territory

While we recognize that the negative year-over-year change in the US CPI may soon reverse given gas prices have risen by nearly 30 cents, we wanted to highlight how rare a negative year-over-year print is in the US.

The Pop In US Mortgage Apps Was Fun While It Lasted

After starting the year off with a bang (thanks to refinancing activity), US mortgage applications are tumbling back towards the depressed 2014 levels. Mortgage apps fell for the third straight week even as the purchase index rose for the first time in seven weeks.

Most Companies In Most Countries Are Underperforming

For every country in the MSCI World Index, we measure the percent of stocks that are outperforming the index. The results give us some indication of the breadth in the equity markets.

Spread Between US and German 10-Years Bonds At Widest Level Since 1989

On Tuesday, the spread between the US 10-year bond and the German 10-year bond reach 180 basis points (currently at 176 basis points). This was the widest spread since May 11, 1989.

Top Line Growth is Becoming More Bifurcated Across Economic Sectors

The growth leaders and laggards are becoming more apparent by the day – or at least analysts think so. In the below charts we show the median and average top line expected next twelve months growth estimates for certain economic sectors.

Fed PMIs Were Almost Universally Weaker In January

We had our first look at manufacturing conditions in February (NY Fed Empire Survey came in below consensus by a few points) and tomorrow we have the industrial production report for the US. What should we expect when that report comes out?

Positive Economic Surprises in Europe, Negative in the U.S.

The Citi Economic Surprise index is a quick way to get a high-level look at the condition of economic data around the world.

A Few Signs Are Pointing To A Lower US Savings Rate In 2015

Since the depths of the financial crisis, the rebound in consumer credit has been polarized. On the one hand you have non-revolving consumer credit (i.e. car loans, student loans, etc.), which briefly declined on a year-over-year basis in 2009 and early 2010 before violently rebounding in 2011.

Inflation Expectations Have Increased Since Mid-January

Since January 15th, 5-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 23 basis points from 105 basis points to 138 basis points. 10-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 16 basis points during this time and 30-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 8 basis points since the beginning of February.

Real Trade-Weighted Dollar At A 141-Month High

The real trade-weighted exchange rate index against major currencies has reached its highest level at the end of January since April 2003. The broader index is currently at a 69-month high. The major currency index includes six currencies (Euro, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Pound Sterling, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc).

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The information presented here is for informational purposes only, and is not to be construed as an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, securities. Some investments are not suitable for all investors, and there can be no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful. Hyperlinks may be included in this message that provide direct access to other internet resources, including web sites. While we believe these links are to reliable sources, Knowledge Leaders Capital has no control over the accuracy or content of information contained on these sites. Although we make every effort to ensure such links are accurate, up to date and relevant, we have no control over pages maintained by external providers. The views expressed by these external providers on their own web pages or on external sites they link to are not necessarily those of Knowledge Leaders Capital.

The information listed on this blog is for example purposes only and should not be construed as the investment Advisor’s opinion or investment outlook. As of the most recent quarter end, the named companies may have been held by the investment Advisor. For full information including additional policies and full disclosures on the Advisor, please visit our website KnowledgeLeadersCapital.com.

An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Any reference to Index performance does not represent the performance of any investment product offered by Knowledge Leaders Capital, LLC. The performance of client account may vary from the Index performance. Index returns shown are not reflective of actual investor performance nor do they reflect fees and expenses applicable to investing. The Index data is the property of Knowledge Leaders Capital, LLC, which has contracted with SolactiveAG to calculate and maintain the indexes.

The launch date of the Knowledge Leaders Knowledge Leaders Developed World Index (Bloomberg ticker KNLGX is 7/1/14 and the base date of the index calculation is 3/31/2000. The launch date of the Knowledge Leaders Emerging Markets Index (Bloomberg ticker KNLGEX) is 9/2/14 and the base date of the index calculation is 4/1/2005. The launch date of the Knowledge Leaders International Index (Bloomberg ticker KNLGINX) is 8/15/16 and the base date of the index calculation is 3/31/2000. The launch date of the Knowledge Leaders United States Index (Bloomberg ticker KNLGUSX) is 8/15/16 and the base date of the index calculation is 3/31/2000. The launch date of the Knowledge Leaders Developed World ADR Index (Bloomberg ticker KNLGAX) is 9/13/16 and the base date of the index calculation is 3/31/2000. The launch date of the Knowledge Leaders International ADR Index (Bloomberg ticker KNLGINAX) is 8/30/16 and the base date of the index calculation is 3/31/2000.

The returns of the Index prior to the launch date are based on applying the rules in effect as of the launch date retroactively to historical periods to and including the base date. Results are not based on an Index that was maintained in real time. The pre-inception performance results of the Index are hypothetical returns which have been compiled by Knowledge Leaders Capital. The performance results are based upon a hypothetical model. Hypothetical performance results may have inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account did or was likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are prepared with the benefit of hindsight. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading strategy which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. These returns should not be considered as indicative of the skills of the investment adviser.To obtain additional index methodology and constituent components, please visit KnowledgeLeadersCapital.com.

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