Divergent Path of US Corporate Profits

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Yesterday we got the latest glimpse into US corporate profitability. Depending on the series observed, corporate profits are either flat-lining or rising. Before-tax corporate profits, the blue series in the chart below, are actually net down by $32 billion from the peak in 2014. Yet, after-tax profits are up about $130 billion from that same […]

Geopolitics Update: Trade War, Tariffs & the Coming Tech Implosion

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As the Trump administration’s on-again, off-again trade war with China continues to create uncertainty for investors, we sat down with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan to learn more about the tariff program and what it could mean for the US economy. Similarly, we discussed the changing outlook for Silicon Valley technology firms — especially Tesla, Facebook, Twitter […]

Quarterly Strategy Update: Volatility Shocks & Dollar Bears

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Price excesses have built up over a long bull market. Stocks are expensive, and the volatility shock wave is traveling the globe. This quarter, we discuss the risks correlated with the current volatility, potential new sources of instability, and the sectors that could be the performance beneficiaries of these trends. Our research indicates we have […]