Yesterday we highlighted that our Weak Stock Market Close Indicator indicator had surged to the highest level since 2012 and today a client made the good point that our Weak Stock Market Close indicator seemed to give more false signals when the Fed was engaging in QE.
As we highlighted yesterday, stock valuations jumped again in December to another cycle high. As the first two charts show, the cyclically adjusted P/E multiple has only been higher on several occasions and the median stock is trading at a record price to cash flow multiple as far back as we have data.
While plans change, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it intends to begin raising interest rates in 2015. It spent most of 2014 laying the groundwork, managing the taper, and in 2015 it will continue to make preparations for lift-off.
Following up on our earlier post today regarding estimate revisions, we thought we’d point out that both top and bottom line growth estimates have continued to fall in recent weeks and are at levels not seen since early 2013.
As was widely reported yesterday, 3Q GDP growth was the strongest since 9/30/2003. However, less widely reported was the fact the intellectual property products contributed the most to real GDP in 32 quarters (9/30/2006). Fixed investment overall contributed 121 basis points to real GDP.