Quarterly Strategy Update: The Investment Consequences of a Normalization in Long Rates

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On this quarter’s conference call, Steve and Bryce dissected US Treasury bonds, discussing the message of the rates market and how this is directing asset allocation. The following slide deck covers their discussion of the following: The bond market has enjoyed a 10-year tailwind from a collapsing term premium. We believe this is probably over […]

Wages Are Rising and The Phillips Curve is Not Dead

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The Phillips Curve (the relationship between wages and the unemployment rate) finally awoke from its slumber with today’s unemployment report showing private sector wages rising 2.9% year-over-year and non-supervisory wages rising 2.8% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate since 2009. Even more important than that, though, is that all indications continue to point to even faster […]

Quarterly Strategy Update: What We Know, What We Think & What We Are Unsure Of

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Recently, fears of a slowdown in global growth brought on by a trade war have led to turbulence in cyclical assets. The US Dollar has risen while commodities and emerging markets have struggled. The Chinese Yuan has depreciated significantly, recalling fears of the 2014-2016 industrial recession. This quarter, we examine the outlook for economic growth […]

Tale of the Tape: Equity Investors More Concerned About Rising Inflation Than Slowing Growth

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We calculate statistics for all developed and emerging equity markets around the world. For our mid/large cap indexes, we take the top 85% of all stocks in a given region or country and convert all prices into US Dollars. These Knowledge Leaders Selection Universe (KLSU) Indexes form the basis of our investment products. By calculating […]

Mid-Quarter Update: The Monetary Policy Pitchfork

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The big three central banks (Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan) met this week to review their monetary stance. In this mid-quarter update, we share our analysis, The Monetary Policy Pitchfork. Summary: After a decade of emergency monetary policy, the major central banks are starting to normalize policy. The Federal Reserve […]

Fed Tightening Doesn’t Fully Explain EM Financial Market Weakness

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This week financial market participants were delivered a cogent explanation for the weakness in EM stocks, bonds and currencies by India’s central bank governor, Mr. Urjit Patel. In Mr. Patel’s opinion, the US Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy (most specifically balance sheet shrinkage, or the allowance by the Fed to let maturing bonds roll […]

Semiconductor Leadership Highlights the Rotation Into Value Stocks

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Semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment stocks have been stellar performers lately, a trend we have been a bit slow to recognize. So, I decided to do a deep dive on semis and semiconductor capital equipment stocks to see if there is opportunity left to capture. Indeed, when I combine the developed and emerging market industry […]