Santa’s Gift to Investors: Global Oversold Conditions Present Buying Opportunity

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The S&P 500 experienced a waterfall decline in December, something rarely seen. Measuring the decline using a 30-day Wilder Relative Strength Index, it is clear the extremes recently experienced. On Christmas Eve, the S&P 500 punctured 30% on the RSI, something that has only happened several times in since 1990. Similar extreme readings were seen […]

Mr. Diversification is Bringing Gifts This Holiday Season After a Long Hiatus

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We are quite sure many of our readers are eager to turn the calendar and be done with 2018’s turbulent and unforgiving markets. After all, US stocks have gyrated wildly for the entire year, foreign stocks have gotten absolutely no love, and traditional diversifiers like bonds and gold just added to one’s troubles for most […]

Mid-Quarter Update: The Fed is Tightening More than it Realizes

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The Federal Reserve is in the midst of an historic tightening cycle, and it has begun to impact the economy.  The latest casualty is the decline in oil prices, which opens up a new set of possibilities in asset allocation. In this special report, we look at the collective causes and effects of US monetary policy. We also describe historically […]

Quarterly Strategy Update: The Investment Consequences of a Normalization in Long Rates

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On this quarter’s conference call, Steve and Bryce dissected US Treasury bonds, discussing the message of the rates market and how this is directing asset allocation. The following slide deck covers their discussion of the following: The bond market has enjoyed a 10-year tailwind from a collapsing term premium. We believe this is probably over […]

Wages Are Rising and The Phillips Curve is Not Dead

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The Phillips Curve (the relationship between wages and the unemployment rate) finally awoke from its slumber with today’s unemployment report showing private sector wages rising 2.9% year-over-year and non-supervisory wages rising 2.8% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate since 2009. Even more important than that, though, is that all indications continue to point to even faster […]

Quarterly Strategy Update: What We Know, What We Think & What We Are Unsure Of

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Recently, fears of a slowdown in global growth brought on by a trade war have led to turbulence in cyclical assets. The US Dollar has risen while commodities and emerging markets have struggled. The Chinese Yuan has depreciated significantly, recalling fears of the 2014-2016 industrial recession. This quarter, we examine the outlook for economic growth […]

Tale of the Tape: Equity Investors More Concerned About Rising Inflation Than Slowing Growth

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We calculate statistics for all developed and emerging equity markets around the world. For our mid/large cap indexes, we take the top 85% of all stocks in a given region or country and convert all prices into US Dollars. These Knowledge Leaders Selection Universe (KLSU) Indexes form the basis of our investment products. By calculating […]

Mid-Quarter Update: The Monetary Policy Pitchfork

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The big three central banks (Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan) met this week to review their monetary stance. In this mid-quarter update, we share our analysis, The Monetary Policy Pitchfork. Summary: After a decade of emergency monetary policy, the major central banks are starting to normalize policy. The Federal Reserve […]