Archive | May, 2015

Inflation Expectations Are Turning Back Over In The US


TIPS derived breakeven inflation expectations have started to fall once again in May. For a little context, starting in last June, breakeven inflation started a steady march lower that lasted until January of this year. Since that time, we have seen a rebound in inflation expectations. For example, five-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation fell from […]

Knowledge Leaders Are Outperforming YTD


In our white paper “The Knowledge Effect: Excess Returns Of Highly Innovative Companies”, we identified a stock market pricing anomaly in highly innovative companies.  The tendency of stocks of highly innovative companies to experience excess returns can be traced back to two main factors: A surge in the pace of knowledge produced catalyzed by the […]

Decline in Sentix Euro Break-Up Survey


The 1,000 or so participants in Sentix’s monthly survey of whether or not a country will leave the euro collectively decided that the risk has subsided (slightly): The decline to 41% (from nearly 50% in April) was mostly attributable to risks related to Greece’s membership in the common currency (black line): Cyprus (in grey) was […]

Longer Term Trends Have Reasserted Itself In May


Remember back in April when we noted how equity trends had completely flip-flopped during the first several weeks of the second quarter and we wondered aloud whether this was a trend change or simply a counter-trend rally? Well, so far in May the market is signalling that equity trends observed in April may have just […]

A Precarious Association


When the ECB announced plans for its own asset purchase program back in January, we commented on the big difference in the relationship between those purchases and equity performance when comparing the U.S. and Europe.  As the MSCI Europe Index hovers near decade highs (and asset purchases appear poised to expand at an accelerated pace over the […]

Breakdowns in the Health Care Sector

Health care stocks have been the leadership sector in the MSCI World, and many (such as biotech) have reached some pretty elevated valuations.  Most stocks in the sector have been in multi-year bull markets trends, outperforming the MSCI All Country World Index  significantly. In our relative strength point and figure charts we take the daily […]