Archive | May, 2015

Dr. Copper Is Down, Not Out


While it is too early to really get our hopes up, it is worth noting that Dr. Copper has clawed its way back above the long-term support that it violated earlier this year: And though its efforts to overcome the downtrend seem to have faltered a bit today, the metal with a Ph.D in economics […]

Monetary Movements & Economic Mirage


While we entered 2015 with the Federal Reserve talking confidently about lift-off and how many rate increases there would be by the end of the year, the markets didn’t seem to buy it.  As weak economic data began to surface, the Fed seemed to quietly backtrack first on the date of lift-off and then on […]

Is Equity Volatility Set to Rise?


Even casual observers of the forex markets will have noticed that it has been a bit of a wild ride over the last several months.  And, while currency volatility has spiked, equities have remained relatively placid.  If this chart showing the historic relationship between the VIX and forex volatility is any indication, the current calm […]

US Equity Leadership (Still) Hasn’t Changed


We mentioned two weeks ago how equity performance has flip-flopped in the second quarter and how asset prices are most likely just in a counter-trend rally. Since then, others have picked up on this theme with a lot of folks calling for higher bond yields in particular (we aren’t so sure). If equity markets are in the process […]

Has Sales Growth Peaked for the Cycle?


Sales growth estimates for companies around the world began sliding towards the middle of 2014 as the price of oil began its months-long setback. In the first chart below we show the average and median company’s next 12 month sales growth estimate for the MSCI World Index which shows that the level of expected sales […]