Archive | October, 2015

The Smart Money Has Never Been This Long the Long Bond

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Back at the beginning of 2014 when commercial traders were net long nearly 40,000 options and futures contracts on the US long bond it marked the peak in yields and preceded a 13 month rally in bonds that took 30-year treasury rates from 4% to 2.25%. Just recently the commercial traders, AKA “smart money”, were net […]

Q: Is the Chinese Rate Cut a Silver Bullet? A: No!

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Today the Peoples Bank of China cut the benchmark interest rate by .25% and lowered banks’ reserve requirements by .5%. The measure is supposed to spur growth and make life a little easier on debt-ridden Chinese companies. In the immediate term it may give a slight boost to the economy, but there is no chance […]

Today at 4:15pm ET: Knowledge Leaders Indexes Quarterly Conference Call

The Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Indexes continue to outperform benchmarks and actively managed funds. You’re invited to dial in to today’s quarterly index conference call.  Steve Vannelli will discuss recent performance and updates from September’s rebalance. Call details: Add Event Today, Oct. 15 at 4:15pm ET Dial-in: 877.515.8156  ID: 57950603 Download slides On July 8, 2015, we launched two […]

Bonds are Not Buying the Rally off the 8/24 Low, Calling into Question Cyclical Leadership Trend


Given the cyclical leadership dynamics since the 8/24 low in stocks, one would have guessed that bonds would have sold off in lockstep with stocks rising. One would have been wrong. Since 8/24 it’s been energy, tech, materials discretionary and industrial leading the way with health care, telecom and utilities bringing up the rear. That […]

White paper: Smart Beta 2.0, A Disruptive Innovation

There is a new battlefront in the money management business. New smart beta ETFs are entering the market to compete against actively managed mutual funds. These funds will be formidable competition, offering the possibility of superior performance — traditionally the province only of actively managed funds — lower expense ratios and other advantages. As with every […]