Archive | June, 2018

EM Capitulation

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Yesterday, someone threw in the towel on EM bonds. The Van Eck JP Morgan Emerging Market Local Currency Debt ETF (EMLC) is the largest and most liquid vehicle to invest in emerging market local currency bonds. In one trade yesterday, someone pushed through a block of 18,841,690 shares, valued at around $320M. Interestingly, the price […]

Which is More Impactful to the US: Crude Oil or China Trade? Can Someone Tell Currency Traders?

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Talk of a trade war with China has recently dominated the discussion in financial markets, overshadowing the other major story playing out in the US economy—normalization of the energy markets. I thought I would answer the question of whether trade with China or oil was a bigger economic issue. Currently the US consumes about 20.4M […]

Mid-Quarter Update: The Monetary Policy Pitchfork

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The big three central banks (Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan) met this week to review their monetary stance. In this mid-quarter update, we share our analysis, The Monetary Policy Pitchfork. Summary: After a decade of emergency monetary policy, the major central banks are starting to normalize policy. The Federal Reserve […]

A Reflationary Inflection in Oil Inventories

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Venezuela has experienced a collapse in oil production this year as the country sinks into chaos. Daily production is down from 1.7M barrels/day at the end of last year to just 1.44M barrels/day at the end of May. Year-over-year production declines are even larger, down about 500k barrels/day. Production peaked in October 2015 at 2.38M […]

Fed Tightening Doesn’t Fully Explain EM Financial Market Weakness

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This week financial market participants were delivered a cogent explanation for the weakness in EM stocks, bonds and currencies by India’s central bank governor, Mr. Urjit Patel. In Mr. Patel’s opinion, the US Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy (most specifically balance sheet shrinkage, or the allowance by the Fed to let maturing bonds roll […]

“Bubble-Like Stock Valuations Miss $3.4 Trillion in Hidden Assets” – or Why Intangibles Matter

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This week, in Bubble-Like Stock Valuations Miss $3.4 Trillion in Hidden Assets, Bloomberg detailed how traditional accounting can make a company’s fundamentals “look a lot worse than they are.” In the article, New York University’s Professor Baruch Lev weighs in. “You get numbers which are highly inflated for some companies and are understated for other […]

Semiconductor Leadership Highlights the Rotation Into Value Stocks

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Semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment stocks have been stellar performers lately, a trend we have been a bit slow to recognize. So, I decided to do a deep dive on semis and semiconductor capital equipment stocks to see if there is opportunity left to capture. Indeed, when I combine the developed and emerging market industry […]

Sitting Here in Limbo

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In observing the equity markets over the last several weeks, we cannot help but be reminded of the Jimmy Cliff song, “Sitting Here in Limbo”, which was famously covered by Jerry Garcia. The first two lines go like this: “Sitting here in limbo, like a bird without a song Sitting here in limbo, but I […]