Archive | September, 2018

Small Caps Fail to Break Out

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  Among the major groups of stocks around the world that we follow, US small-cap stocks have been the best performer over the last decade as the USD experienced a strong bull market. US small caps have outperformed our mid/large group of developed companies by almost 40% over the last 10 years. The relative performance […]

Playing for a Bounce

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Over the summer, some groups within the global equity market sold off sharply, leading to the current trends of poor performance and weak breadth. Foreign stocks, cyclicals and value-oriented sectors were the hardest hit. From here, we expect better trends from these groups as they have become statistically washed out. We calculate the percent of […]

Wages Are Rising and The Phillips Curve is Not Dead

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The Phillips Curve (the relationship between wages and the unemployment rate) finally awoke from its slumber with today’s unemployment report showing private sector wages rising 2.9% year-over-year and non-supervisory wages rising 2.8% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate since 2009. Even more important than that, though, is that all indications continue to point to even faster […]

Thoughts on the Term Premium

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As many have documented, the main channel of transmission for the Fed’s quantitative easing policy was via the term premium component of US treasuries. As the Fed’s balance sheet doubled from 2010 to 2015, the term premium embedded in US treasuries fell from 2.5% to -75bps. The Fed is now shrinking its balance sheet, which […]