This quarter, we look at two important structural changes that appear to be underway: a normalization in US and European monetary policy and a normalization in crude oil inventories. We expect these two trends to have important ramifications for equity sector leadership trends. In addition, we expect the growth-driven equity leadership that has prevailed for the last decade to transition to one that is more favorable for traditional value sectors like energy and materials. We appear to be in the later phase of the current business cycle which suggests an allocation to long US bonds. If past is prologue, 30-year rates should hold steady or trend lower during the monetary tightening cycle.
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