Since the start of this year, the US Treasury market is signaling a scenario of rising growth expectations and falling inflation expectations, as reflected by the various components that comprise interest rates. In this quarter’s strategy update, Portfolio Manager Steven Vannelli, CFA, explores the following:
- Monetary policy: We examine the demographic shifts causing people to spend less and save more as well as possible monetary tightening scenarios.
- US Treasuries: While rates have been mostly sideways this year, the building blocks have been very dynamic.
- Global equities: We analyze what factors could threaten the relative outperformance of the US and that in turn could benefit developed Europe, Asia and the emerging markets.
- Fixed income: We look at TIPS vs. nominal US Treasury bonds and why we view TIPS as a call option on higher oil.
Download the full slide presentation here, Quarterly Strategy Report: Dynamic Undercurrents.