Buckle Up, The Next Two Weeks are Full of Inflation Related Data That Could Move Markets

The next two weeks will be key for markets as they assess the magnitude and durability of the ongoing inflation liftoff. If data reveal an upward, but benign trajectory then both equity and bond markets may well rally hard. If, on the other hand, the data comes in hotter than expected, we may wind up with stocks and bonds both selling off. Either way, stocks and bonds are likely to be positively correlated in price, at least until the market discounts the new information. The data releases of importance on the inflation front are as follows:

Friday 4/27: Employment Cost Index, personal consumption expenditure prices, GDP price index, University of Michigan inflation expectations

Monday 4/30: Dallas Fed input prices paid and prices received

Tuesday 5/1: Markit manufacturing PMI input and output prices, ISM manufacturing prices

Thursday 5/3: Markit services PMI prices, ISM non-manufacturing PMI prices, unit labor costs/productivity

Friday 5/4: Employment report/average hourly earnings

Tuesday 5/8: Job openings and labor turnover survey, NFIB survey of employment costs

Wednesday 5/9: Producer price index

Thursday 5/10: Consumer price index

Friday 5/11: Import and export prices, University of Michigan inflation expectations

Buckle up indeed.

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