Credit markets often move before the equity markets, and this can offer helpful information about the near-term path of equity prices. In general, I like to see credit confirming what the equity markets seem to be saying. When credit stalls, like it is now, I take notice. Investment grade spreads recovered about 30bps between January […]
Knightian uncertainty is named after University of Chicago economist Frank Knight (1885–1972), who distinguished risk and uncertainty in his work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit: “Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated…. The essential fact is that ‘risk’ means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at […]
The slide in oil prices in October accounted for most of the move in 10-Year US Treasury bonds via the inflation risk component of the term premium. The two series are always highly correlated and this is a mechanism through which oil price changes are incorporated into US Treasury pricing. This year, there are two […]
As the year ended with global unknowns and market uncertainties weighing on investors’ minds, we sat down with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan to discuss his outlook for 2019. His top predictions included calls on Brexit, a US-Britain trade deal, China’s exit from world trade, new chaos in Europe including an end of democracy in Germany […]
The S&P 500 experienced a waterfall decline in December, something rarely seen. Measuring the decline using a 30-day Wilder Relative Strength Index, it is clear the extremes recently experienced. On Christmas Eve, the S&P 500 punctured 30% on the RSI, something that has only happened several times in since 1990. Similar extreme readings were seen […]
For decades, industries worldwide have used toxic chemicals like fertilizers, pesticides and antibiotics that are harmful to people and the environment to drive profits. Denmark-based Novozymes is working to replace those chemical processes with enzymes, naturally derived proteins that initiate biochemical reactions. This Knowledge Leader ferments enzymes into tiny granules and liquids to help customers […]
One of the more well-recognized Now-Casting data series is the GDPNow series produced by the Federal Reserve of Atlanta. Every day they incorporate economic data releases and update their estimate for GDP growth in the current quarter. GDPNow is a great source of information on the real-time performance of the US economy. Growth expectations, after […]
The Federal Reserve is in the midst of an historic tightening cycle, and it has begun to impact the economy. The latest casualty is the decline in oil prices, which opens up a new set of possibilities in asset allocation. In this special report, we look at the collective causes and effects of US monetary policy. We also describe historically […]
In 1887, a young man named Tomiro Nagase set out on a mission to bring cleanliness and hygiene to daily life in Japan. The Meiji Restoration was transforming the country from an agrarian to an industrial society and with it, a new middle class was emerging. People had a choice of two kinds of body […]
Value investing, which is often traced back to Ben Graham in the 1940s, is among the most influential trends in finance in recent decades. Value investing is based on the idea that lots of stocks are out of investors’ favor because of myriad of reasons, such as recent losses, management upheaval (think GE), product failures, etc. Investors […]